DeMarco Murray

2012 Running Backs to Watch Closely

August 3, 2012 By Winn Jones Leave a Comment

: Cal running back Marshawn Lynch at the 2005 Las Vegas Bowl. The Golden Bears defeated the BYU Cougars 35-28. Lynch was the game MVP. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Easy favorites of the bunch:

Reggie Bush-MIA- As any fantasy football fan from 2011-2012 season will tell you Reggie Bush may have been one of the best late season pickups of the season last year. Yahoo Sports currently projects him to be the 20^thbest running back due to his timeshare with Daniel Thomas and a new coach (who no one is sure how he will be used). While this may scare some managers away please don't forget that his QB will be either the infamousDavid Garrard or a rookie QB. They will lean heavily on the running game with a schedule that features the oh so soft defenses of Arizona, Seattle, Tennessee, Indianapolis, St. Louis, and New England. Don't forget, if they're down Bush will likely be the second best receiving option on the team with Brandon Marshall gone. Bush may not lead the league in rushing as he promised this offseason, but he'll easily be the best value pick for someone bold enough to pick him up in rounds 2-3 this year.

DeMarco Murray-DAL-Aka the man who got me into the playoff during an injury-riddled middle of last fantasy season. I know this projected #12 RB ended the season on IR, but if he's even half of the man he was last season he merits a late second to third round pick. If he looks strong in the pre-season his stock may rise even more.

Middle of the pack:

Michael Turner- ATL- I know all of you are probably scratching your heads at this one. But anyone who's watched Turner throughout his career will tell you the guy's getting some serious tread on his tires. It's just like he hit a wall last year. With two 100 yard games in his last 9 games last season he is just not worth being picked up in the first two rounds (Especially seeing as one of those games was in week 17 against a terrible Tampa Bay team). Not to mention he averaged less than 4 yards per cary for nine of his sixteen games last year. Again, he's not a BAD RB…just not worth the likely second or third round pick you will give up to get him. If there's nothing else of even close value available, snach him up. Just don't expect "the real Michael Turner". This guy just shares his name.

Marshawn Lynch-SEA- Mr. Consistency. It won't be pretty. It won't be a 200 yrd rushing game with three TDs, but more times than not he'll get you 10 points. Whether it be ugly with 40 yards rushing with a TD or 100 yards rushing with no paydirt he'll find a way. In fantasy you can't ask for much more than that from a RB ranked out of the top 10 RBs (#11). Great play for bye weeks, injuries to other starters, or if you just don't like your other RBs matchup that week. You won't get better value in the late second/third round. Let the other guys take the risks.

Ahmad Bradshaw-NYG-With Brandon Jacobs getting himself exiled to a backup timeshare hell in San Fran there's no one else in New York to carry the ball whatsoever. It all falls on Bradshaw who has an extreme amount of upside this coming season. On a team that moves the ball through the air very well. Big back that runs well between the tackles. He could easily double his nine rushing TD number from last year with Jacobs gone-who scored 8. If Bradshaw stays to his sure-handed ways (1 fumble last year) he will easily average 20+ carries per game. That alone will put him over 1100 yards at last year's average per carry. He could be a great mid-round pickup with an upside of top #10 RBs, all for a round 3-5 pick.

Buyers Beware:

Doug Martin-TB-while the rookie has looked pretty amazing in camp so far and will likely end up as the starting RB in the Tampa backfield this is like being the smartest kid in the slow class. Anyone who watched a Tampa Bay game last year (that wasn't blacked out) could see that LeGarrette Blount's had two three problems last year.

1. Holding on to the ball

2. Having no hole or running lanes on 2^nd/3^rd and short due to his offensive line getting manhandled; and

3. Not getting enough carries consistently throughout the season. Blount received over 20 carries only three times all season for various reasons (his lack of effort, his team's defense forcing Tampa out of their gameplan, bad gameplanning, etc). He averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in those games. Do you really think Martin's going to receive more carries than 15-20 with Blount in a likely timeshare? Me neither. Pick him later only when the risk is worth the reward, like after you draft your third WR. If he does blow up and Tampa becomes a run first team with an emphasis on running the ball outside of the tackles all of a sudden his stock skyrockets. Keep an eye on him in them in pre-season.

Trent Richardson-CLE-you know SOMEONE'S going to draft him. He's too good of a college player not to make it out of the first round. Someone will see his Yahoo Sports #7 RB ranking and forget he plays for the vertically passing- inept Cleveland Browns. They'll also likely forget that he'll have a very hungry MantarioHardesty chomping to vulture any carries he can from the former Alabama star. But the final most important thing that they'll forget is that the Brown have a horrendous schedule against run stopping defenses this year inCincinnati twice, Buffalo, Baltimore twice, NY Giants, Pittsburg twice, and Denver. Anyone willing to take that pick in the first or early second will need prayer…and tissues. If he's available in the second or third…grab him. Only grab him where value will meet the price. Let the other guys take the risks. You go for consistency.

Ryan Mathews-SD-I'm not sure how many seasons this kid has to lay a goose egg before people stop drafting him in the first two rounds! While he no longer has Tolbert in the backfield to vulture carries and TDs away from him the fact that Ronnie Brown or Jackie Battle are even mentioned in the same conversation as Ryan Mathews should tell you all you need to know. Yahoo Sports can rank him at the #4 RB spot all they like, he'll never be worth a first or even early second round pick this year, especially with his injury history.

A Paradox-

BenJarvus Green-Ellis-Cinn-How will this guy look on a team not quarterbacked by a guy with the last name Brady? I'm not so sure he's that much of a difference from his backup Bernard Scott. He could end up being a great late round selection just as easily as he could be second string by week 6. Who knows?

Obvious guys-be sure not to forget about them-

Jamaal Charles-KC- Please don't fall asleep on this man. I know he was injured in 2011 but if he's near his 2011 or 2010 form he'll easily be worth the 2^ndround pick you'll give up for this Yahoo Sports #13 ranked RB. He'll easily surpass that if he stays healthy this year, even on the Chiefs.

Darren Sproles-NO-as if I had to tell you. Now, if any of you are even moderately nervous about this upcoming season due to the Saints losing their head coach and offensive mastermind (and a few defensive players) due to the bounty program, just remember…that means at worst they'll be down more. More throwing, more Sproles opportunities, more points. He may be in a timeshare and Yahoo Sports may have him ranked at #18 of all RBs but don't you listen to them come draft day they told you to draft Peyton Hillis in the first round last year lol.

Fantasy Football Draft Hidden Gems: The Running Backs (bigcatcountry.com)
Undervalued Running Back: James Starks of the Potent Green Bay Packers (ff-winners.com)
TIP: Draft a Top Quarterback! (ff-winners.com)
Fantasy Football Running Backs to Avoid in 2012: Peterson, Turner & More (bleacherreport.com)
Ranking the 10 Most Overrated Early-Round Picks in Fantasy Football (bleacherreport.com)
What to Expect from Michael Turner in 2012 (bloggingdirty.com)
Fantasy Football Doppelgangers: Comparing 2011 Breakout Stars to 2012 Sleepers (bleacherreport.com)
Fantasy football preview – The Atlanta Falcons (blogs.theprovince.com)
Miami Dolphins RB Reggie Bush insists he can lead the league in rushing – Sun-Sentinel (blog) (blogs.sun-sentinel.com)
Top-10 Fantasy Football Running Backs for 2012 (blackandteal.com)

Filed Under: Fantasy Football Strategy Tagged With: Brandon Marshall, David Garrard, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Turner, Reggie Bush, Running back, Yahoo Sports

TIP: Draft a Top Quarterback!

August 3, 2012 By Winn Jones Leave a Comment

: HOUSTON – OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Matt Schaub #8 of the Houston Texans shakes hands with running back Maurice Jones-Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars as injured wide receiver Andre Johnson looks on at Reliant Stadium on October 30, 2011 in Houston, Texas. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

For years,"experts" would certainly point out that quarterback is not an essential position to target on dream draft day. Merely a couple of years ago, the leading dream quarterbacks will not chalk up so much more points than the low-end QB1's. Running back was consistently the position to target. There was a large decline off from the world-class backs to the second-tier people, as well as if you pursued a big star QB as an alternative of one of the best joggers, your fantasy team was toast.

Nonetheless, those days may be over.

I took a look at all the lineups in my league last year and found some captivating statistics amongst every person's QB's as well as RB's. I evaluated the varieties based upon the six teams that made the playoffs from the 4 teams that didn't make it. All the amounts are based upon my league's racking up settings, which you may consider right here.

The very first thing that caught my eye was that the starting QB's of teams that made the playoffs, on average, outscored the non-playoff groups by 124.95 points over the course of the period. Where leading quarterbacks made use of to set up comparable varieties to the low-end QB1's, there is currently a striking difference between the elite as well as the below average. This is in large element due to a number of groups, such as the Packers, Saints, and also Patriots, following a new pass-happy approach that is becoming increasingly more popular in the NFL. When quarterbacks have even more chances to make plays, the top-tier comes to be more separated from the second-tier.

That number alone may not be extraordinarily persuasive, yet examine it to this: playoff teams' top-drafted running backs only averaged 78.52 even more points than the non-playoff groups' top-drafted backsides. In addition, 3 of 6 playoff teams (consisting of the 2 teams in the championship) stood by until the second-round to prepare their first RB, while just 1 of 4 non-playoff teams did so.

An additional appealing statistic came when examining groups' second-drafted operating backs. Playoff teams were in fact outscored by non-playoff groups by an average of 24.85 points. Some teams attempted to load up at RB as well as stand by to get a QB for a more desirable value in the later rounds, yet it didn't appear to work with them. It appears to make even more sense to pursue a QB earlier, and hang around to obtain a much better worth on a RB later on.

However if you're shedding value at RB2, where do you offset it? Well, apart from the truth that you'll be getting a ton of worth at the quarterback position, you're going to wish to dig deep into free of charge company every Tuesday. Operating back is the most vital position when it arrives to the waiver-wire. In between injuries, board techniques, as well as Mike Shanahan backfields, there are consistently free of cost agents to target. In addition to free representatives, there is way even more sleeper appeal for RB's than there is for QB's. Among the 6 playoff teams in my league, only one group started a quarterback who had not been prepared as a QB1 (Cam Newton). Nonetheless, a lot of playoff groups rode their sleeper RB's to the postseason …

Considering complimentary broker pickups and players prepared in the final 4 rounds (of a 17 round draft), the playoff groups' top six were Michael Shrub, Roy Helu, CJ Spiller, Willis McGahee, Pierre Thomas, as well as Beanie Wells. The non-playoff teams' top 4 were Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty, DeMarco Murray, and Jackie Battle. The non-playoff groups were outscored by an average of 68.83 points in this classification, merely 10 reduced than in the top-drafted RB group.

The days of waiting until the middle-rounds to prepare Matt Schaub while you pile up on your skill position players are over; you want a top-notch quarterback. This isn't really to point out that you can't take an operating back or wide receiver in the very first or next round, yet if you lose out on one of the top five or 6 QB's you're at an extreme negative aspect. I might still propose selecting among Foster, Rice, and also McCoy if you have one of the top three selections, but there's a massive drop off after those 3 as well as a deep pool of strong RB's, so taking somebody like Aaron Rodgers over a Maurice Jones-Drew type user may be the way to go.

In summation, make sure you obtain a world-class quarterback, also if it implies waiting a round to buy your RB1 or RB2.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football Strategy Tagged With: Beanie Wells, CJ Spiller, DeMarco Murray, Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, quarterback, Running back, Willis McGahee

A Few 2012 FantasyFootball Draft Mock ADP Bargains and Sleepers

June 27, 2012 By Winn Jones 1 Comment

From http://www.tulsaworld.com/blogs/ sportspost.aspx?Some_early_fantasy_football_sleepers/44-15170:

QB Jay Cutler, Bears: Stop laughing. New scheme that made Daunte Culpepper a fantasy stud. He gets back the guy who catch more than 100 of his passes a few seasons ago, Brandon Marshall. Those other receivers who have been forced to be the No. 1 guy are allowed to go to their natural positions. The new running back Michael Bush won't catch the ball much, forcing more throws. That might easily be 30 touchdowns.

QB Matt Flynn, Seahawks: He has people to throw to and the offense can run the ball. A bad defense means he will be on the field a lot.

RB Fred Jackson, Bills: With a better defense comes more carries for a running back. Jackson was a stud before getting hurt. He has no competition and right now is ranked way too low. Could be a top 10 guy.

LaMichael James, 49ers: Could be the next Darren Sproles. The 49ers aren't going to become a passing threat with Alex Smith under center. Frank Gore is still your main man, but I see a lot of screens coming out of this team. Without a No. 1 receiver (apologies to the unretired Randy Moss) James could be the one getting a lot of attention.

Felix Jones, Cowboys: He finally gets one of the league's best fullbacks to run behind. DeMarco Murray is in the mix, sure, but Jones may be the home run threat you can get a lot later. Mike Goodson, Raiders: So far, Darren McFadden can't stay healthy. Now that Michael Bush is in Chicago, Goodson is the only guy left. And he's shown he can get yards behind a decent offensive line.

Doug Martin Bucs: If Robert Griffin III doesn't win rookie of the year, I think this guy does. He is going to start and be on a better coached team than took the field last year. Oh, and the new coach likes to run down people's throats.

WR Robert Meachem, Chargers: The BTW Hornet is now the No. 1 threat in San Diego who feed receivers a lot. Can he fight a double team, which he never had in New Orleans. I say yes.

Reggie Wayne, Colts: Bad defense. Decent rookie quarterback. No running game. If you needed a third starter, he might be a steal late in the draft.

Rueben Randle Giants: I would say that the Giants know something about wide receivers. They have been able to find talent in the draft and in free agency.