ADP Prediction: Top-5 Overall
Coming off an incredible 2011 season, Rice was a consensus top three back heading into the 2012. He ended the Super Bowl campaign as the sixth-best back in fantasy land, totaling 1,621 yards and 10 touchdowns. Rice has been the model of consistency the past three seasons, turning in top-10 running back performances in each of the past three years. And he just turned 26, so why should you be worried?
As I was listening to the DLF Podcast last Wednesday night, Denny Carter brought up a very valid point concerning Rice and his possible demise in 2013. He mentioned Rice and his total usage during these playoffs. Averaging 23 touches per game this postseason, he ended the season with an additional 92 touches. Here’s what he did with those touches:
Another concern I have with Rice is the fact Bernard Pierce has looked every bit like the back the Ravens have so glowingly talked about. In the Ravens’ final two games, Pierce rushed 36 times for 212 yards (5.9 YPC). He didn’t stop there, following up those performances with a 13 rush, 103-yard game against the Colts in the first round of the playoffs. There’s no doubt in my mind that Pierce will end up being the Ben Tate of handcuffs in 2013, and he’ll definitely eat into Rice’s touches and productivity more than Tate did for Arian Foster owners.
Those extra touches are bound to affect Rice heading into 2013, especially considering he’ll have close to two months less to get his body healed up.
I can’t seem to write an article these days without delving into PFF’s Signature Stats and what popped out at me for Rice was the difference in his long runs from 2011 to 2012. In 2011, Rice had 13 runs of 15-plus yards that netted him 485 yards. In 2012, that number dropped down to 11 runs for only 285 yards. I bring this up only because I remember watching their first playoff game and seeing Rice take a screen pass for what I thought was going to be a somewhat easy 49-yard touchdown. It ended up being a 47-yard pass and catch with Rice getting tackled at the 2-yard line. From an eye test, Rice looks significantly slower than he has in previous years. The burst is still there, but he seems more “gassed” on plays like the one noted.
Rice ended up having over 400 touches for the second consecutive year. For those that hate math, that’s more than 800 in just two seasons. Let someone else draft him inside the top-5 because this Super Bowl run will be the beginning of the demise of one, Ray Rice.
ADP Prediction: Early to Mid Second Round
I told myself I was going to try and stay away from the quarterback position in my articles here atlateroundqb.com because I think JJ compiles enough data in his book to steer you in the right direction. For some reason though, Brady’s name keeps coming up as an ideal Walking Dead candidate.
If you hate Brady, it’s only because you envy him. He’s never done anything to tarnish his name or hurt his team. You only hate him because of the rings, the dynasty, the model wife, the money, and the butt chin.
OK, I kind of hate him right now, too.
Brady has been a top-4 fantasy quarterback for three straight years. He finished third this season (Only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were better), throwing for 4,800 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions.
But the fact is, he turns 36 before the 2013 season. And because it’s a passing league, there’s value to be had elsewhere.
For instance, Rotoworld.com writes:
“Brady’s 2012 completion rate was his lowest since 2006, and his YPA was his worst since 2008. In December, Brady completed only 58.5 percent with a 7.0 YPA and five interceptions.”
Not only was his completion percentage down, but according to Pro Football Focus, Brady was the 17th ranked QB in terms of deep passing completion percentage (20+ yards) at just 40.5%. To put that in perspective, Jake Locker, Philip Rivers, and Sam Bradford are all ranked higher.
Another damning stat is Brady’s steady decline in numbers when he’s pressured by opposing defenses. Since 2010, when Brady was the highest ranked QB when under pressure- he has gotten increasingly worse with less pressure in every year since.
If teams stick to the blueprint of trying to get pressure on Brady (and that’s a big if, I know), we could be seeing the end of his elite fantasy football production in 2013.
Both Rice and Brady are still going to be good fantasy football options next year. What I’m trying to convey is that they may not produce the numbers we’ve all come to expect from them. I’m not saying Rice is going to be a bust or you should draft Pierce before him. And I’m certainly not saying that Brady has suddenly been overtaken by Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson.
I’m saying there is better value out there when the decision to draft Rice or Brady presents itself.
A lot of fantasy football owners who did not reach their organization's Super Bowl this year are asking themselves the same concerns: Why did I not compose a novice quarterback or Adrian Peterson, and exactly what can I do to gain my fantasy league in 2013?
The great thing is you do not have to wait till next August to prepare your method for 2013. You could start dealing with winning next period RIGHT NOW.
While the also-rans in your league who do not take dream football overly seriously will concentrate their attention on life, family, work and dream basketball and baseball organizations, you can prepare for the 2013 project.
I am in 3 leagues– made 3 playoffs, lost twice in the semifinals however was fortunate enough to win one champion. After a day or two of commemorating my title and asking yourself if Josh Freeman is worthy of a ring or not after his back-to-back four-INT efficiencies nearly cost me hundreds of dollars, I will start concentrating on 2013.
Below is exactly what you can do now to win your fantasy football organization in 2013:.
Figure Out Your Keeper Situation.
If you are in a year-to-year league where you begin fresh every season and do not hold over any players, do not hesitate to skip over to the next area. If you are in a caretaker league where you safeguard a couple players or in a dynasty league where you can hold your entire lineup over to 2013, keep reading.
Your keeper/protected list might not be due for months, however that does not indicate you could not design a strategy for the offseason instantly. Narrow down the list of players you wish to have on your squad next year. See if you are doing not have at quarterback or running back and inspect over other teams' lineups in your organization to detect a feasible offseason trading partner.
The first is do I keep two RBs or one RB and one WR. And if I lean toward the latter, then the second decision is which RB gets kept. I may have my mind made up by next weekend, and that will enable me to leap begin my transaction strategy after the New Year.
This last week could help make the future of your dream team appear clearer. Whatever the case, your dream team is built around your celebrity keepers, so they must be high on your concern list.
Deal with Your Weak points.
No dream owner is perfect. If they were they would win their leagues every year and go unbeaten like the 1972 Miami Dolphins. You have to look in the mirror, be truthful about your drawbacks and make resolutions to enhance in 2013.
You learn something brand-new every year in dream football, and you need to be truthful about your strengths and weak points as an owner. Perhaps you are not a terrific skill evaluator. If you composed Miles Austin when you might have had Calvin Johnson, shied away from Tom Brady because you thought he was old, or drafted 3 kickers but only two running backs, your general manager skills could possibly make use of some work.
Doing some offseason mock drafts for 2013 could possibly be helpful if that is the case. Numerous different sites offer them for individuals who wish to have their hands in some sort of fantasy football-related enjoyable throughout the year.
Possibly your trouble is that other owners will not trade with you because you have been tagged as somebody who is hard to handle either since your lopsided offers are insulting or due to the fact that you have a freezing behavior like Expense Belichick. Ask owners in your organization about your credibility over a hot coffee or a cold beer. You could figure out personality type you need to change that can indirectly help your fantasy group next period.
Begin Completing Your 2013 Cheat Sheet.
As soon as you figure out which 2012 players are staying on your 2013 lineup, you could begin completing a draft list/cheat slab for next season.
It is never ever prematurely to do this and you could constantly modify it throughout the offseason. Trades, free company and the NFL draft will continuously damage your rankings, so make certain to not compose them out in pen.
During a silent change at work or a monotonous family feature, rate the leading 20 players at each significant dream position. As soon as a week look at your list and make changes depending upon information you hear relating to players and groups. Completing a cheat slab now and transforming it over the offseason will have you better prepared for your draft than if you just work up a list the day prior to your draft or simply rip a list from a journal.
Hopefully these ideas can help you feel better about what could possibly occur to you and your fantasy team in 2013. In a nutshell, assess your group's skill, assess your individual talent as a GM and schedule maker and evaluate the skill at each position in the NFL fantasy-wise. It might all bring about you hoisting a dream prize in 2013.
If they were they would gain their leagues every year and go unbeaten like the 1972 Miami Dolphins. You have to look in the mirror, be truthful about your shortcomings and make resolutions to improve in 2013.
You might discover out character traits you have to alter that can indirectly help your dream group next season.
Ideally these tips could help you feel much better about exactly what could possibly occur to you and your fantasy group in 2013. It can all lead to you lifting a fantasy prize in 2013.
New England Patriots receiver Brandon Lloyd is showing to be promising in the course of training camp. According to Mary Paoletti of CSN New England, the veteran wideout and quarterback Tom Brady have been the feature of practices, connecting on deep passes that have y drawn "oohs" and "ahhs" from spectators. Taking into account Randy Moss never scored less than 11 TDs or 1,008 yards throughout his 3 full seasons in a Pats uniform, Lloyd can be primed for a nig year. With Kyle Orton at the helm during his time with the Denver Broncos in 2010, Lloyd took care of 1,448 gardens with 11 touchdowns. Last season he played for both the Broncos and also the Rams, yet still gained 966 gardens and o three scores. Presently that he is reunited with OC Josh McDaniels and will certainly be catching passes from the greatest quarterback he's ever been with, the Illinois WR could be one of the more desirable fantasy football values if he can easily remain healthy. Wes Welker currently has an ADP of 19.89, while Lloyd holds an ADP of 62.14 on NFL.com's draft facility. In the NFL fantasy specialists league mock draft, Lloyd was not taken until the sixth round as the 52nd general selection. He could be well worth the investment as a borderline No. 2 or 3 wideout in drafts.
3 Solid Steps to building your Fantasy Football Team:
Step 1. Understand your point structure. Rank the positions.
All the time I see people ask their friends “How does my fantasy football team look?” and will go on to list off their players. This is always an impossible question to answer because we do not know your point structure. You may have 3 of the best receivers on the planet but if it’s one of the weakest positions in your league then they’re nothing but a pretty name.
Each league is different, so it’s extremely important to know what your value positions are. In most cookie cutter leagues it’s the Running Backs, which is why they go so fast, but you always want to make sure. What I always like to do is execute my leagues point structure against last year’s stats. That way you see what positions rise to the top. This is quick and simple to do in excel and goes a long way when it comes to draft day.
Step 2. Starting Slots are key. Do the Math when drafting.
Now that you know what your value positions are, take a look at your starting slots. Does your league have 1 quarterback but 3 running backs starting? Or 2 and 2? On draft day be aware of the strength in position and the holes you have to fill. If your league has only 1 quarterback slot and multiple running back slots, you have no business taking a quarterback in the first two rounds. Load up on your strength positions early and often, heck even one on the bench early on will not only help your trade value but could be vital should one of your starters get injured or is going up against a stingy defense.
Knowing your slots are huge, because if there is only 12 teams in your league with 1 starting slot for a given position, that means you’re likely to get a top 12 caliber player at that position. Don’t stretch for an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in the first or second round, when you’ll have a Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, or Ben Roethlisberger sitting there in rounds 4-6. You could be loading up on Running Backs and Wide Receivers instead.
Step 3. Tight Ends are as good as Receivers.
You need at least 1 solid ball catcher on your team. But people make the mistake of stretching for a Wide Receiver because there are 3-4 of those slots they need to fill when its very well likely that there is a solid Tight End on the board. Most systems and ranking sheets will break these two positions apart yet the point structure is the same, so always be sure when the time comes you consider both positions. I’ll take a Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham over a Wes Welker or Roddy White any day of the week. It is perfectly fine for your solid ball catcher to be a Tight End and have all mid level guys in your wide receiver slots.
Good luck and happy drafting!